When does the market top out?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

(Chinese) blood in the streets?

The worries about China ebbs and flows. The latest BAML Fund Manager Survey shows that China fears are at flood levels again.     Indeed, developments such as the inverted Chinese yield curve is creating a sense of peak anxiety.     I recently highlighted analysis indicating that China fears are overblown (see Are the...

Are the Fed and PBoC taking away the punch bowl?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

How a China crash might unfold

As Donald Trump prepares to meet Xi Jingping this week, I am reminded of the long-term challenges that face China, namely its growing debt. There have been many analysts warning of the credit buildup, here is this chart from BCA Research is one of many examples.     While I am not calling for an...

China’s revival and what it means

I was reviewing RRG charts on the weekend (click here for a primer on RRG charting) using different dimensions to slice and dice the market. When I analyzed the regional and country leadership, I was surprised to see that the dominant leadership were all China related (note that these ETFs are all denominated in USD,...

Cry Havoc, and slip loose the dogs of (trade) war!

The WSJ reported that the Trump administration is considering a new tactic in managing its trade relationship with China. Here is the Bloomberg recap for those without a WSJ subscription: Under the plan, the commerce secretary would designate the practice of currency manipulation as an unfair subsidy when employed by any country, instead of singling...

How Trump/Navarro could spark a market crash

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

The bear case: How Trumponomics keeps me awake at night

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is...

Going on recession watch, but don’t panic!

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Is Chinese growth stalling?

I have long had much respect for the folks at Lombard Street Research (LSR) for their unusual non-consensus calls. Back in the days of the Tech Bubble when everyone was focused on the likes of Cisco Systems, Lucent, Nokia and other technology darlings, they had said "watch China" as the next engine of growth. That...

Should China emulate America? Or the other way around?

For your weekend contemplation: This post isn't about how the American and Chinese economies may converge, but about the potential development path of capital markets and regulatory regimes. CNBC recently reported that Charles Schwab and the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance conducted a survey of Chinese stock investors and found out the reason the Chinese...

What’s spooking the stock market?

Mid-week market update: No, it isn't just a more hawkish Federal Reserve that's spooking the stock market. Stock prices were been falling before Fedspeak and the latest FOMC minutes sounded a more hawkish tone. The SPX staged a successful test of its 2040 neckline support of its head and shoulders pattern today. In fact, today`s action...

Waiting for the storm to pass

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

Big Trouble with 5-year China?

China's latest five-year plan seems to be a big hit. What's more, the most recent growth slowdown is abating, the stock market is recovering, but my indicators are suggesting that, despite all of the glowing rhetoric, the economy is taking a step back in its path towards re-balancing growth towards the household sector. Five-year plan...