Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
Regular readers recognize that my inner investor is bullish on stocks, though my inner trader remains a little leery and expects further market choppiness (see Profit by thinking like Big Money). Despite my longer term bullishness, I tweeted this morning that I had tactically taken a small, underline the word "small", short position in SPX...
Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
In theory, stock prices should be poised to rally. The SPX is testing a key support zone dating back to October 2014 and it is experiencing positive divergences on the 5 and 14 day RSI. If it did bottom here, the initial target would be the first Fibonacci retracement level at about 1935, with further...
Model signal summary Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities Trend Model signal: Risk-off Trading model: Bearish (downgrade) The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based...
Dana Lyons recently wrote a terrific piece about the level of complacency in the current bout of stock market weakness. The SPX had fallen over 9% in two weeks, but the VIX Index was barely challenging its December highs and it was nowhere near the highs set during the August/September selloff. He found that past...
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Risk-off (downgrade) Trading model: Bearish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"...
After the market closed yesterday (Wednesday), I tweeted a series of charts indicating that the market appeared to be oversold, but fear levels weren't extreme yet: The market was oversold on % of stocks over the 10 day moving average based on the breadth charts from IndexIndicators; The market was oversold on net 20 day...
I would like to think that my last post, The road to a 2016 market top, panicked the market into a vicious sell-off on the first trading day of the year, but I can't think of many people with have the hubris to make that kind of suggestion. As the market closed, the SPX was...
In my last post, I wrote about the possible appearance of a rare Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal this week (see The 2016 macro surprise that no one talks about). Tuesday was the last day in the 10 day window for the ZBT buy signal to be triggered. Alas, it doesn't seem to have happened....
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My...
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My inner...
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My inner...
I received a couple of comments to my last weekend post that it was somewhat lacking in a short-term trading outlook (see 2016: Time to get bearish and go "Zero Hedge"?). As my previous view that the US equity market would grind up until year-end hasn't worked out, it would be appropriate to update the...
One of my tools in my market analysis toolbox is leadership analysis. In particular, I found that in bull phases, it pays to buy the market leaders (see Momentum + Bull market = Chocolate + Peanut butter). I was playing around with Relative Rotation Graphs, or RRG, the other day and what I found was a surprise....
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My inner...
In Canada, we had our Thanksgiving a month ago (because the growing season is shorter and it makes no sense to have Thanksgiving in November when it's freezing in much of the country). Nevertheless, in the spirit of American Thanksgiving, I reflected on what to give thanks about. In light of the events in Paris...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
