Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Stock prices have taken a minor and uneven risk-off tone this week. The pullback has been attributable to fears over a Delta variant-related slowdown. I beg to differ. Instead, the weakness can be better explained by market technical conditions. The 5-day correlation between the S&P 500 and VVIX, or the volatility...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: As the market enters into Q2 earnings season, FactSet reported that consensus estimates are calling for an astounding 63.3% YoY EPS growth. While that growth estimate appears to be a high bar, investors have to keep in mind the low base effect. As well, the historical record shows that actual...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The US markets have surged recently relative to global equity markets, as measured by MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI). Developed markets (EAFE) and emerging markets (EM) have weakened on a relative basis. How long can this last? The S&P 500 is testing an important resistance level that could lead to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 has shown negative seasonality at the end of June. So far, the index has been tracking its historical pattern well in 2021. The market took fright last week from the abrupt hawkish tone of the FOMC statement and subsequent Powell press conference last week. By Friday, it had become...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Traders have an adage, "Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs just get slaughtered." It's time for equity bulls to be near-term cautious on stocks, though I expect any market weakness to be relatively shallow. In my weekend update, I had set out a number of tripwires (see Time is running...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend (see Where's the fear?) that the relief rally that began last Thursday was unconvincing and my base case scenario called for a retest of the lows. The retest appears to be underway. Spikes of the VIX Index above its upper Bollinger Band (BB) were signals...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Bloomberg recently featured an unusual article titled "Sell Signals All But Useless in Unchartable 2021 Stock Market". If you bailed because of Bollinger Bands, ran away from relative strength or took direction from the directional market indicator in 2021, you paid for it. It’s testament to the straight-up trajectory of stocks...
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