Mid-week market update: Even as selected sentiment models and market internals scream for caution, the S&P 500 is on the verge of melting up as it tests overhead resistance as defined by a rising trend line. The melt-up condition would be confirmed if the index were to rally through the trend line, which it did...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: What should traders make of this stock market? On one hand, the S&P 500 is exhibiting strong positive price momentum. Not only is the index trading above its daily Bollinger Band (BB), it's trading above its weekly BB. In the last 10 years, there have been eight occasions when the S&P 500...
Mid-week market update: If you hadn't known that it was FOMC day, you would have looked at the closing market diary and shrugged. The S&P 500 closed only +0.3% on the day. Beneath the surface, however, a lot has been going on in the past few weeks. Analysts who try to call the direction...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Is the bond market panic over yet? The 10-year Treasury yield touched a high of 1.6% last week. It fell when the Reserve Bank of Australia began to engage in yield curve control, but it is edging back towards 1.5% again. Based on this week's market action, I conclude that...
With 96% of S&P 500 companies having reported, Q4 earnings season is all but over. For the markets, the earnings reports contained both good news and bad news. There was plenty of good news. Both EPS and sales beat rates were well above their historical averages. In addition, consensus earnings estimates have been rising...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: About a month ago, I warned that the market was undergoing a regime shift from growth to value (see What would Bob Farrell say?) and compared today's Big Tech momentum stocks, not to the dot-com mania, but the Nifty Fifty era. On the weekend, I rhetorically asked in a tweet that if...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
The nature of the market advance has been extraordinary and relentless. From a long-term perspective, the monthly MACD model flashed a buy signal last August for the broadly-based Wilshire 5000 and there are no signs of technical deterioration. This is a bull market, but sentiment has become sufficiently frothy that a reset is overdue. ...
Mid-week market update: Instead of repeating endlessly the mantra of how frothy this market has become, I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look at one of the market leaders. Small cap stocks have led the market up during this recovery. On the other hand, the latest BoA Global Fund Manager...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: Despite my warnings about negative divergence, the S&P 500 continued to rise and it is now testing a key trend line resistance level at about 3920. Much of the negative breadth divergence have disappeared, though Helene Meisler observed that about 35% of the NASDAQ new highs are triple counted. Is...
Q4 earnings season is in full swing, and results are strong. With 59% of the S&P 500 having reported, both the EPS and sales beat rates are well ahead of historical averages. Moreover, forward 12-month EPS estimates surged 3.5% in a single week. As well, estimates are surging across all market cap bands....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
Mid-week market update: The fever on the r/WSB squeeze has broken. As well, the elevated nature of sentiment readings has begun to normalize. Does that mean the correction is over? In the past few days, I have had an unusual number of people ask me that question. My answer has been, "In the...
Is this GameStop's "shoeshine boy" moment? Tracy Alloway pointed out that GME had made it to dog Instagram. If dog Instagram wasn't enough of a shoeshine boy moment, how about this Michael Bathnick observation? Regardless, there are a number of other opportunities in the short squeeze space to consider (other than...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
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