Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: For a change, I thought it was more appropriate to write about bond yields instead of the usual tactical trading commentary about stock prices on this FOMC day. Increasingly, there has been more and more bearish calls for bond prices (and bullish calls for bond yields) as the Fed continues its rate...
Goldbugs got excited recently when the gold stock to gold ratio turned up sharply after the gold price consolidated sideways subsequent to breaking up from a downtrend. Past episodes have been bullish signals for bullion prices. On the other hand, the front page of Barron's may also be a contrarian magazine cover bearish...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I have been asked to periodically update my sector leadership analysis as a guide to spot up and coming sector strength. The standard approach is to apply the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) to the market. As an explanation, RRG charts are a way of depicting the changes in leadership in different groups,...
It has been 10 years since the Lehman bankruptcy, which became the trigger for the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). The financial press has been full of retrospective stories of what happened, and discussions from key players. The GFC was an enormous shock to investor confidence. Ever since that event, many investors have been living with...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: There are a number of signs that the pullback that began in late August has run its course. These conditions makes me short-term bullish, but I remain longer term cautious on equities. The market's recent action of a correction to test its breakout level turned support is constructive. The index pulled back...
Technology stocks have been on a tear in the last couple of years. Indeed, both the Tech sector and the Tech heavy NASDAQ 100 has been market leaders. Tech earnings have surged in this cycle. By contrast, non-Tech earnings appear to be at or near a cyclical peak. Can it continue?...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Here at Humble Student of the Markets, we believe that investors can gain great insight through the use of inter-market, or cross asset market, analysis. During this period of heightened trade tensions and emerging market stress, it is the US Dollar that is driving risk appetite, and the direction of stock prices....
Ed Yardeni recently highlighted the surge in small business confidence, earnings and employment plans as part of a scenario of what could go right. Beneath the surface, there were a number of contradictions that were evocative of official Chinese economic statistics. A confidence bifurcation The first problem is how consumer and business confidence is...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
There has been a lot of excitement over a possible breakthrough on NAFTA based on a handshake agreement between the United States and Mexico. The White House has also positioned the deal as a take-it-or-leave-it offer to Canada to join the agreement by Friday, which has also raised the anticipation level on the prospect that...
Mid-week market update: As the market broke out through the round number 2900 level, I am indebted to Urban Carmel and others for pointing out that the index is testing a key uptrend line. There are a number of common elements of the current market conditions to past tests of the uptrend: By...
I am late on this analysis, but I spent some time on the weekend reading, and re-reading Powell's Jackson Hole speech. Contrary to the market's interpretation, I concluded that his speech was not as dovish as the market thinks. There is much at stake for equity investors. The stock market is already risen to its...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: There was a lot of skepticism in response to my last post (see How many pennies left in front of the steamroller?). Much of it was related to comments relating to positive market breadth. I am in debt to Urban Carmel who pointed out back in May that the Advance-Decline Line tends to...
A reader commented on the weekend, "TBH, being long here sure feels like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller". I agree. While I have been steadfast in my belief of a "Last Hurrah rally" before a significant market top, that scenario is looking far less likely. As the market tests a key resistance...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
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