Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Further to my last post (see Nearing the terminal phase of this equity bull), There are numerous signs that the market's animal spirits are getting set for a reflationary stock market rally. First of all, the BAML Fund Manager Survey shows that a predominant majority of institutional managers believe that we are in...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Technical analysts monitor market breadth, as the theory goes, to see the underlying tone of the market. If the major market averages are rising, but breadth indicators are not confirming the advance, this can be described as the generals leading the charge, but the troops are not following. Such negative divergences are...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: So far, the stock market seems to be following Jeff Hirsch's seasonal map of June. The market was strong in the first couple of days, and it has mostly been flat this week. If history is any guide, it should start to weaken late this week. Evidence is building that...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges highlighted a historical study of what happens if the market pulls back after a persistent move to new highs, where yesterday (Tuesday) was day 0. If history is any guide, stock prices should grind higher over the next 10 days. Today was day 1 of...
Good afternoon, class. Welcome to another session of "Thinking Straight 101". Your assignment today is to choose one of the topics below and write an essay for next week's class: North Korea: George Friedman at Geopolitical Futures recently warned, "All the signs are there: The U.S. is telling North Korea, in no uncertain terms, that...
Mid-week market update: So far, my recent VIX based buy signal has worked out according to plan (see A market top checklist). I emailed subscribers the buy signal from the trading system on Friday, which was triggered when the VIX Index rises above its upper Bollinger Band and then mean reverts below. If...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The SPX rose to a marginal new high this week but broken down through a narrow range due to the latest he said-he said dispute in Washington. The index appears to have formed an island reversal with bearish implications. The market has fallen through two gaps to test its support level at...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: My recent sector review was well received, especially when it was framed in the context of how a market cycle rotation works (see In the 3rd inning of a market cycle advance). As I don't have much to update about the technical condition of the stock market, especially in light of the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: In the past two weeks, I have become progressively more bullish on stocks (see A capitulation bottom? and Buy signals everywhere), based on the belief that the risk/reward trade-off was tilted in favor of the bulls. Even as the market bottomed with sentiment at crowded short levels, the rebound had been unusually...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: One of the most reliable trading signals occur when an indicator becomes oversold and mean reverts to neutral (buy signal), or if it gets overbought and mean reverts to neutral (sell signal). We saw numerous versions of buy signals of that variety from the VIX Index this week. Consider, for example, the...
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