Mid-week market comment: Arthur Hill at stockcharts recently observed that the Russell 2000 was in a tight consolidation range, which is characterized by a narrowing Bollinger Band. Such conditions tend to resolve themselves with volatility expansions which represent breakouts from the trading range. His remarks about the Russell 2000 could also be applicable to the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is...
In my post written last weekend (see Watch the reaction, not just the Fed), I suggested that the key to future stock market trajectory was not just the FOMC statement, but the reaction to the statement and subsequent press conference: What happens to the dot plot? How will the market react to the Fed's message?...
Mid-week market update: The stock market sold off today on no apparent fundamental or economic news. The most likely cause was the latest ABC/Washington Post tracking poll that showed that Trump had overtaken Clinton. The race had been tightening for several days, but this seemed to be the last straw for the markets, which threw...
Mid-week market update: From a trader`s perspective, this market had been jittery and mainly driven by two themes. The first was the resolution of the uncertainty over the presidential debate that occurred Monday night. The other is the uncertainty over the fate of Deutsche Bank as a symptom of the systemic risk posed by European...
As I write these words before the first presidential debate, expectations have been racheted up for a Trump win and Clinton loss. Here is just one example (via Politico): 'She will have to answer every single question flawlessly, exude gravitas...not cough, wear an acceptable pantsuit, smile enough, be likable, not laugh and have a good...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The reaction to Donald Trump`s speech to the Republican convention has been highly bifurcated. Mainstream media and analysts mostly reacted with horror and raised cautionary notes about his campaign of fear (see The New York Times and The Economist), while social media lit up with "I would totally vote for this guy" messages. ...
Mid-week market update: There isn't much to say about the short-term stock market outlook, other than to acknowledge that a strong reflex rally is underway. As the markets are reacting in a highly emotional way, I have little to add other than to say that the market will be volatile. If you did jump on...
Mid-week market update: No, it isn't just a more hawkish Federal Reserve that's spooking the stock market. Stock prices were been falling before Fedspeak and the latest FOMC minutes sounded a more hawkish tone. The SPX staged a successful test of its 2040 neckline support of its head and shoulders pattern today. In fact, today`s action...
Let me make myself very clear. As a Canadian, I have no horse in the American presidential race, but Donald Trump is a clown. He is a loose cannon on deck. He could also become the next president of the United States. So when does the market start to discount the potential effects of a...
Let me preface my remarks with two caveats. Firstly, I am politically agnostic and I don`t have a horse in the latest race for the American presidency. As a Canadian, I can`t vote in a US election. As well, it might be considered foolhardy to project what a politician might do based on his campaign...
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