The US Q1 GDP report is scheduled to be released Friday morning. Current expectations call for a Q/Q growth rate of 1.1%, but there are wide disparities in nowcasts. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast of Q1 GDP growth has been declining since late February and stands at a meager 0.5%. By contrast, the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
I just wanted to follow up to yesterday's post (see Don't relax yet, the week isn't over). One of the key developments that I had been watching has been the recent hawkish evolution in Fedspeak. Last night, uber-dove Lael Brainard gave an extraordinarily hawkish speech. She started with the following remarks: The economy appears to...
Mid-week market update: Boy, was I wrong. Two weeks ago, I wrote Why the S&P 500 won't get to 2400 (in this rally). Despite today's market strength, stock prices may be restrained by a case of round number-itis as the Dow crosses the 21,000 mark and the SPX tests the 2,400 level. In addition, the market's...
There has been much hand wringing by economists over the falling labor force participation rate (LFPR). As the chart below shows, the prime age LFPR, which is not affected by the age demographic effect of retiring Baby Boomers, have not recovered to levels before the Great Recession. The lack of recovery in LFPR...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
The chart below depicts the yield curve, as measured by spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, (blue line) and equity returns (grey line). The yield curve has been an uncanny recession forecaster. It has inverted ahead of every single recession, and warned of major equity bear markets. Unfortunately, this indicator may...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
I had been meaning to write about a preview of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Here are the elements of the Yellen Labor Market Dashboard, courtesy of Bloomberg. As you can see, many of the components have either fully or nearly recovered from the depths of the GFC, with the glaring exception of a...
Now that the Trump team has moved into the West Wing of the White House, investors still one big Trump policy question mark that overhang the market. Who will Trump appoint to the two vacant governor seats at the Federal Reserve? CNBC reported that David Nason is a leading contender for a board seat, but...
I had been meaning to write about the December Jobs Report, which was released last Friday, but I hadn't gotten around to it. The report had elements of both good news and bad news. The good news is the December report showed a solid market. True, the headline Non-Farm Payroll figure missed market expectations, but...
In my post written last weekend (see Watch the reaction, not just the Fed), I suggested that the key to future stock market trajectory was not just the FOMC statement, but the reaction to the statement and subsequent press conference: What happens to the dot plot? How will the market react to the Fed's message?...
Further to my last post (see Watch the reaction, not just the Fed), I got a number of questions that asked if there are any factors or nuances from the FOMC statement or subsequent press conference to watch for. Firstly, I reiterate my point that the reaction to the Fed is far more important to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
In many ways, Donald Trump is an economic enigma. Candidate Trump has in the past advocated wildly contradictory positions on the campaign trail. Sometime the market is left not knowing what to think. One little discussed topic but important topic is Trump's relationship with the Federal Reserve. What kind of Fed would he like to...
Ever since Janet Yellen made that her "high pressured economy" speech, market analysts have been scrambling to understand what she meant by that term. The Fed Chair used that term in the context of a research conference held at the Boston Fed. So was it an academic musing, or was it a hint of a...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend to buy Yom Kippur, which ends today (see Buy Yom Kippur! SPX 2500 by Passover?). My inner trader sent out an email to subscribers yesterday indicating that he had added to his long position by buying a high-beta small cap position. I would like to outline...
The Federal Reserve has spoken (see FOMC September statement). With three dissenting votes on the FOMC, a December rate hike is more or less baked in. The Fed will take a gradual approach to rate hikes, with the median "dot plot" forecasting a December rate hike and two more in 2017. While the...
Recently, there has been a parade of regional Fed presidents calling for a serious consideration of a rate hike: Boston Fed's Rosengren, who appears to have becoming more hawkish after being a dove Richmond Fed`s Lacker San Francisco Fed`s Williams Kansas City Fed's George Atlanta Fed's Lockhart The hawkishness of regional presidents is no surprise....
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