Ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision, market expectations are turning bearish. Even as the S&P 500 consolidated sideways, defensive sectors are all starting to show signs of life by rallying through relative performance downtrends. Hawkish fears A CNBC poll found that the consensus expects the Fed to double its taper, which would end...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The most recent stock market downdraft was sparked by the news of a new virus variant that was initially identified in South Africa and the Fed's hawkish pivot. As evidence emerged that Omicron is more transmissible but less deadly, the market staged an enormous rip-your-face-off short-covering rally. Today, Pfizer and BioNTech reported...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Stock markets were recently sideswiped by the dual threat of a new Omicron strain of COVID-19 and Jerome Powell's hawkish pivot. Global markets adopted a risk-on tone and the S&P 500 pulled back to test its 50-day moving average. This week, I assess the damage that these developments have done to the investment...
Mid-week market update: Last Friday's Omicron surprise left a lot of bulls off-guard when the markets suddenly went risk-off on the news of a new variant emerging from South Africa. Stocks became oversold and I observed that "To be bearish here means you are betting on another COVID Crash." (see COVID Crash 2.0?). Even as...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: My trading view remains unchanged. The market is consolidating for a rally into year-end (see The seasonal rally is intact). Initial S&P 500 support on the hourly chart is at about 4680, and secondary support is at 4630-4640. If the S&P 500 breaks out to an all-time high, we're off to the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Volatility indexes are flashing a number of signals of interest. In the past few weeks, a yawning gap has opened out between MOVE, which measures bond volatility, and VIX, which measures equity volatility. The divergence has begun to close in the last couple of days as the VIX has risen and the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Jack Schannep at DowTheory.com described a classic Dow Theory buy signal this way: The classic Buy signal is developed as follows: After the low point of a primary downtrend in a Bear market is established, a secondary uptrend (this is the most often debated part of the Theory) bounce will occur. After that, a...
Mid-week market update: I told you so. Earlier in the week, I wrote that the market had become overly hawkish about interest rate expectations (see Hawkish expectations). Leading up to the November FOMC meeting, the Fed had signaled that a QE taper is about to begin and, if everything goes along with projections, the first...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 had been on an upper Bollinger Band ride, but the ride may be over. In the past year, such events have resolved themselves in either a sideways consolidation or pullback. As well, the 14-day RSI has reached levels consistent with a pause in the advance. Based on...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Where are we in the market cycle? The accompanying chart shows a stylized market cycle and changes in sector leadership. Bear markets are characterized by the leadership of defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples and utilities. Early-cycle markets are sparked by the monetary stimulus or the promise of monetary stimulus. The market leaders in...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 has been undergoing a ride on its upper Bollinger Band (BB), which historically has been a bullish sign of price momentum. The bigger question is how the tape will behave when the upper BB ride ends. Here are some observations: The 5-day RSI is extremely overbought, but...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
