Recently, a number of major investment banks have published warnings for the US stock market. The strategists at BoA, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have issued either bearish or cautionary outlooks. On the other hand, Ryan Detrick at LPL Financial documented the effects of strong price momentum on stock prices. History...
Mid-week market update: There have been two breakouts that may be of significance. The first is an upside breakout of the SPY/TLT ratio. The ratio is pulling back to test its breakout. The SPY/IEF already staged a convincing breakout in late June. The second and more obvious breakout is an upside breakout by...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I recently highlighted the possible development of a rare momentum-based Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal (see The Zweig Breadth Thrust watch). The window for the ZBT buy signal closes tomorrow (Thursday). While the S&P 500 has been advancing slowly, we are unlikely to see the buy signal barring some gargantuan melt-up tomorrow....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Stock prices have taken a minor and uneven risk-off tone this week. The pullback has been attributable to fears over a Delta variant-related slowdown. I beg to differ. Instead, the weakness can be better explained by market technical conditions. The 5-day correlation between the S&P 500 and VVIX, or the volatility...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
One of my principal tools of market analysis is the use of trend-following techniques to spot changes in macro conditions. My models are seeing some early green shoots in the value and reflation trade. It began with the stronger than expected July Jobs Report. The subsequent tame core CPI print also helped to reinforce the...
Mid-week market update: I have been relatively constructive on the stock market in recent weeks, but I am going to do something different this time. Aside from the obvious negative RSI divergences to the rising S&P 500, what are the downside risks to this bull? There are many to consider. Technical...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Evidence of a negative seasonal pattern has been circulating on the internet for the S&P 500. As one of many examples, LPL Financial pointed out that the S&P 500 has typically topped out in early August and slides into late September. While past performance is no guarantee of future returns,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It`s time for another periodic review of sector leadership. For the purposes of analyzing changes in leadership, I use the Relative Rotation Graphs, or RRG charts, as the primary tool for the analysis of sector and style leadership. As an explanation, RRG charts are a way of depicting the changes in leadership in different groups, such...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I could tell that a panic bottom was near on Monday when how many people had lost their minds when the S&P 500 fell -3.7% from its intraday all-time high, both from my social media feed and emails (see A sudden risk-off panic). The S&P 500 rallied impressively on Tuesday to fill...
The markets opened with a risk-off tone overnight in Asia, The selloff continued in Europe, and now it is in North America. The talking heads on television have attributed the weakness to COVIE-19 jitters over the spread of the Delta variant. Panic is starting to set in as the S&P 500 approaches a test...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: As the market enters into Q2 earnings season, FactSet reported that consensus estimates are calling for an astounding 63.3% YoY EPS growth. While that growth estimate appears to be a high bar, investors have to keep in mind the low base effect. As well, the historical record shows that actual...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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