Three bottom spotting techniques for traders

Mid-week market update: Regular readers will know that I have been tactically cautious on the market for several weeks, but can the blogosphere please stop now with details of how many days it has been without a 1% decline?     The market fell -1.2% on Tuesday with no obvious catalyst. Despite today's weak rally...

Rate hikes ≠ The Apocalypse

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

A sentimental warning for bulls and bears

Mid-week market update: Recently, there have been numerous data points indicating excessive bullishness from different segments of the market: Retail investors are all-in Institutional investor bullish sentiment is off the charts Cash is at a two-decade low in global investor portfolios RIA sentiment are at bullish extremes Hedge funds are in a crowded long in...

Why I am cautious on the market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Stay cautious, but wait for the break

Mid-week market update: Markets behave different at tops and bottoms. Bottoms are often V-shaped and reflect panic. Tops are usually slower to develop. Hence the trader's adage, "Take the stairs up, and escalator down." I have been writing that the US equity market appears to be extended short-term and ripe for a pullback, but that...

Watch what they do, not just what they say

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Why the S&P 500 won’t get to 2400 (in this rally)

Mid-week market update: As the major market averages make new all-time highs, I conducted an informal and unscientific Twitter poll. I was surprised to see how bullish respondents were.     Let's just cut to the chase - forget it. Neither the fundamental nor the technical backdrop is ready for an advance of that magnitude....

Peak populism?

Technical analysts often use the magazine cover indicator as a contrarian indicator. When an idea has become so commonplace that it becomes the cover of a major magazine, the public is all-in and it's time to sell. The Economist reported on an ad hoc study by Greg Marks and Brent Donnelly at Citigroup using covers...

A focus on growth

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

The ways your trading model could lead you astray

I have had a number of discussions with subscribers asking for more "how to" posts (see Teaching my readers how to fish). This will be one of a series of occasional posts on how to build a robust investment process. For traders and investors, one of the challenges is how to build a robust discipline...

Main Street bulls vs. Washington bears

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

How Trump/Navarro could spark a market crash

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

The cloudy side of Trump

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

A correction on the horizon?

Mid-week market update: It's always nice to take a few days off during the holidays, except all that I got for Christmas was a cold. The stock market doesn't seem to be doing too much better as it tests the bottom of a narrow trading range during what should be a period of positive seasonality.  ...

Santa Claus rally, or round number-itis?

Mid-week market update: As the Dow approaches the magic 20,000 mark, the question for traders is: Will Santa Claus be coming to town this year, or will the market advance stall as it catches "round number-itis"?     Here is what I am watching. Risk appetite Risk appetite metrics are mixed. Fixed income risk appetite, as...

How Trumponomics could push the S&P 500 to 2500+

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Trump makes stocks great again (for now)

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

A glass half-empty

Mid-week market update: About two weeks ago, I wrote a post indicating that market had focused on the positives of a Trump presidency (see The Trump Presidency: A glass half-full?). Now it seems that market psychology is subtly shifting to a glass half-empty view. It is very revealing when the new nominees for the key...

The start of a new Trump bull?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Going on recession watch, but don’t panic!

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...