Mid-week market update: It's always nice to take a few days off during the holidays, except all that I got for Christmas was a cold. The stock market doesn't seem to be doing too much better as it tests the bottom of a narrow trading range during what should be a period of positive seasonality. ...
Mid-week market update: As the Dow approaches the magic 20,000 mark, the question for traders is: Will Santa Claus be coming to town this year, or will the market advance stall as it catches "round number-itis"? Here is what I am watching. Risk appetite Risk appetite metrics are mixed. Fixed income risk appetite, as...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Stock prices continue to surge ahead, while the bond market *ahem* is having its difficulties. The Dow Jones Industrials Average made another record high, followed by the Transportation Average. The combination of the dual all-time highs constitutes a Dow Theory...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Traders who rely on technical signals use two main kinds of trading systems. They either rely on trends or counter-trend signals. Trending systems capitalizes on spotting a bandwagon and jumping on it before the crowd to ride it to profit. By contrast, counter-trends systems depend on finding market extremes and positioning for...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
I have been seeing analysis from various quarters raising concerns about the sustainability of the post-election stock market advance because of the poor breadth of the market. The chart below shows the NYSE A-D Line overlaid on top of the SP 500. As you can see from the chart, the NYSE A-D Line has been...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The stock market sold off today on no apparent fundamental or economic news. The most likely cause was the latest ABC/Washington Post tracking poll that showed that Trump had overtaken Clinton. The race had been tightening for several days, but this seemed to be the last straw for the markets, which threw...
Mid-week market update: Several readers wrote me this week with similar comments, which went something like, "I concur with your bullish fundamental reasoning, but the stock market is trading little 'heavy' and I am concerned." I agree 100%. Despite the bullish fundamental and technical tailwinds (see Six reasons why I am still bullish), the market hasn't...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
A scary analog has been floating around in the last few days. Citibank FX analyst Tom Fitzpatrick postulated that the current market looks an awful lot like 1987 (via Business Insider). Murray Gunn at HSBC also issued a similar crash warning. Oh, puh-leez! I can think of at least three reasons why this isn't...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend to buy Yom Kippur, which ends today (see Buy Yom Kippur! SPX 2500 by Passover?). My inner trader sent out an email to subscribers yesterday indicating that he had added to his long position by buying a high-beta small cap position. I would like to outline...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The market gods must be angry. Just as a goldbug predicted the demise of the US Dollar (and therefore the rise of gold) as of September 30, 2016 at 4pm ET, the USD rallied and gold cratered on Tuesday. The technical damage to gold was extensive, as it broke a key support...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: From a trader`s perspective, this market had been jittery and mainly driven by two themes. The first was the resolution of the uncertainty over the presidential debate that occurred Monday night. The other is the uncertainty over the fate of Deutsche Bank as a symptom of the systemic risk posed by European...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
