Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I know that financial stocks are more than just banks, they include financial conglomerates like American Express, broker-dealers, life and property and casualty insurers, and so on. But mark this day. This will be a financial panic to tell your grandchildren about. As the chart shows, the technical damage to the sector is considerable. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. The S&P 500 (SPX) remains in a well-defined uptrend, but the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), which represents large-cap growth, violated an uptrend that stretches back to the GFC. The relative performance of the NASDAQ 100 to the S&P 500 shows a similar trend break...
Mid-week market update: As the S&P 500 consolidates just below its 50 dma, here are some considerations that make me constructive on the stock market. The index is exhibiting an oversold condition on the percentage of stocks above their 20 dma and a minor positive divergence on the 5-day Bullish factors The...
I don't comment about individual stocks very often, but I came upon this chart. It has been steadily rising for the last few years and it has been quietly beating its sector peers. Could this be the next Amazon or Apple? Relative strength study My conclusion is based on a study I...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In addition to the hot January PCE print, the other surprise of last week was the upbeat flash PMI from S&P Global Market Intelligence (formerly IHS Markit) showing upside surprises from the G4 industrialized countries. Increasingly, the market narrative is shifting from a growth slowdown to no recession and continued growth. The markets are behaving...
Mid-week market update: The Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal is a rare price momentum signal that's been triggered only six times since Marty Zweig wrote the book that outlined his signal. The stock market has risen every time 12 months after the buy signals. It requires the Zweig Breath Thrust Indicator (ZBT) to rise from...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Last week, the usually reliable S&P 500 Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) flashed a tactical sell signal when its 14-day RSI recycled from overbought to neutral. It's time to sound the tactical all-clear in the aftermath of the sell signal. Bottoming signals One reader alerted me that...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...
The recent market rally has been led by a resurgence in large-cap NASDAQ stocks. This leadership has become overly extended, as evidenced by the rising divergence between their relative performance and the 10-year Treasury yield. A detailed factor and sector performance analysis reveals an underlying trend in favor of cyclical exposure. Growth...
Mid-week market update: In case you missed it, the S&P 500 experienced a "golden cross" this week, when the 50 dma rose above the 200 dma. This is generally regarded as a bullish development among the technical analysis crowd as an indication that the price trend has turned upward. How should traders and...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The stock market reacted with a risk-on tone to the FOMC decision. The S&P 500 has staged an upside breakout through the 4100 level. While I am cautiously intermediate-term bullish, be warned that the initial reaction to FOMC decisions are often reversed the following day. Keep in mind that this...
Mid-week market update: As we enter Q4 earnings season, the macro backdrop looks grim. The Economic Surprise Index, which measures whether economic releases are beating or missing expectations, is weakening. Weak fundamentals From a bottom-up perspective, FactSet reported that the market entered Q4 earnings season with a trend of falling net margins....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...
The stock market began 2023 with a rally based on the "green shoots" narrative of a Fed pivot and optimism about the effects of China reopening its economy. Since then, the S&P 500 rose to test resistance as defined by its falling trend line and pulled back. Similarly, the equal-weighted S&P 500, the mid-cap S&P...
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