Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: It finally happened. The NASDAQ 100 is being re-weighted in order to address “concentration risk” (full details here). It was a belated decision in response to narrow market leadership, but the problem seems to have moderated on its own. Large-cap technology stocks, which had been on a tear, stalled against the S&P...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Geopolitical risks are rising and it remains to be seen how the market reacts to geopolitical stress. On the weekend, I made the following tweet. Those fears are becoming more real. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated in a tweet, "Now we have information from our intelligence that the Russian military has placed...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 daily stochastic recycled from overbought to neutral last week and stock prices pulled back. Initial support can be found at about 4320, with secondary support at about 4200, which is also the approximate level of the 50 dma. Can 4320 hold? Signs of weakness I am seeing...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 reached an overbought extreme on the 5-week RSI after nearing the top of an ascending channel and it appears to be in the process of pulling back. In the past, such extreme RSI conditions has seen the market rally stall. There is a strong support zone at about 4200,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: It's not easy to make a market comment on an FOMC day. Let's start by analyzing the Fed's projections. The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a stronger economy and tigher monetary policy in response to the revised projections. The Fed revised up its GDP projections for this year by...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Subscribers received an email alert last Friday that I had issued a tactical sell signal for the stock market. The VIX Index had fallen below its lower Bollinger Band, which is often a signal of a short-term top. Since then, the index has been trading sideways while the 5-day RSI slowly descended...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Is this a case of buy the rumor and sell the news? We've had the news of a debt ceiling deal and it appears that the bill will have enough votes to pass the House today. But where's the relief rally? The S&P 500 continues to struggle with resistance at the 4180-4200...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As at the time of writing, the White House and the Republican-led House haven’t come to a debt ceiling deal yet, though both sides are getting closer to a deal. But you only die once, and focusing on the fear of a catastrophe isn’t very useful. Hedging only works if there is someone you can...
Mid-week market update: Have you ever seen any technician publish the short-term analysis of the stock market just before a key event with a binary outcome, such as an FOMC decision, NFP report, or CPI report? How much confidence would you place in such a forecast? As we await the outcome of the debt...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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