Buy the breakout, recession risk limited

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Any more precautionary cuts?

Mid-week market update: Now that the Fed has cut rates a third time, and the upside breakout in the SPX and NDX are holding, what's next?     Are the series of precautionary cuts over?   Dissecting the rate cut Now that Brexit risks have subsided, and trade tensions are receding as the US and...

Scary Halloween story: How a weak USD could hand China a major victory

I have written before how a strong USD can be a negative for global financial stability. There are  many EM borrowers who have borrowed in the offshore USD market, and a rising USD puts a strain on their finances. In addition, FactSet reported that companies with foreign domestic exposure have exhibited worse sales growth than...

The Art of the Deal, Phase One edition

The markets began to take on a risk-on tone on Friday when the news that American and Chinese negotiators had "made headway on specific issues and the two sides are close to finalizing some sections of the agreement". Bloomberg went on to report today that the text of the "phase one" agreement is basically done,...

An upcoming seismic shift in factor returns

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...