Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 put in a potential double bottom when it tested its recent lows while exhibiting a positive RSI divergence. Stock prices rallied on the news of a ceasefire in order to allow civilians to evacuate. Is this a durable bottom? News from the front The market...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Will the S&P 500 hold support or will it break? The index is once again testing the neckline of a potential head and shoulders pattern while exhibiting a minor positive RSI divergence. Here are the bull and bear cases. Sentimental bulls Short-term sentiment models look stretched to the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Trying to spot a bottom here is like trying to catch a falling knife - and at a time of war. Here is what I am watching in order to navigate the turmoil. It's official. We are entering the Biden administration's "trade talks are going very well with China" phase of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on Monday (see Everything but the kitchen sink) that market sentiment was overly stretched on the downside, "If you are short here, you need a catastrophe within the next 10 days, otherwise, you run the risk of a rip-your-face-off relief rally." The relief rally appeared right on cue on...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Technical analysis can be highly interpretative. Consider, for example, the bull or bear flag, which is a continuation pattern. For the uninitiated, a bull flag is a pullback within a bull trend and the trend is deemed to have continued when the stock or index stages an upside breakout from the flag....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: How far can the market rally run? The S&P 500 weakened in January and bottomed last week. It has mounted a strong relief rally, but it is testomg a key Fibonacci retracement level at about 4590 and a resistance zone at 4600-4630. Is this the start of a V-shaped market...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The stock market has been extremely oversold for the past few days, but one element had been missing for the short-term, namely a sentiment capitulation and wash-out, which may have finally appeared. The latest Business Week cover may be the classic contrarian magazine cover indicator of a developing bottom. ...
As the stock market looks forward to another exciting week of volatility, the technical damage suffered by the market is quite severe. Nevertheless, investors need to take a deep breath and ask, "What's the market pricing in?" The three major factors I consider in my analysis are: Earnings and valuation; Fed policy; and...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The ominously named Hindenburg Omen was developed by Jim Miekka to spot major stock market tops. Unfortunately, it has also had a history of crying wolf too many times with false positives. Its inconsistency prompted one commentary to call it a warning to avoid traveling by blimp. David Keller recently penned an article that analyzed...
Mid-week market update: After this week's brutal sell-offs, the stock market is oversold enough for a bounce. The VIX Index has risen above its upper Bollinger Band, which is an oversold market condition and short-term buy signal. If the market action in the past year is any guide, the potential for the S&P...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In the past week, several readers have asked whether it's too late to be buying financials, value, and other cyclical stocks. In reply, I highlighted the recent Mark Hulbert column, "Value stocks now are beating growth by 10 points, but the easy money might be behind us", namely that the value/growth reversal may not necessarily have...
Mid-week market update: In my update last weekend (see Waiting for the sell signal), I observed that the S&P 500 was oversold and due for a relief rally. The market cooperated by printing a hammer candle on Monday, which is a capitulative reversal indicator, and confirmed the reversal with a bullish follow through on Tuesday...
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