Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: As the S&P 500 consolidates its gains in a narrow range after its surge last week, it has been a frustrating time for both bulls and bears. As investors wait for either the breakout or breakdown from the range, here are the bull and bear cases. A mixed...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: After weeks of documenting how oversold and washed out the stock market is, the S&P 500 staged a marginal upside breakout through a falling channel while exhibiting a series of positive 5-day RSI divergences. Equally constructive is the behavior of net new highs, which turned positive today. Have the bulls...
Mid-week market update: One of the concerns I had after last Friday's market turnaround was that a bounce had become the consensus view. Virtually every technical analyst was calling for a bear market rally, followed by further weakness. It sounded too easy. Either the bounce was going to fail, or the market was going to...
Mid-week market update: For several weeks, sentiment surveys such as AAII and Investors Intelligence have signaled extreme levels of bearishness seen at past market bottoms. However, some observers have played down the sentiment surveys because indications of positioning are inconsistent with extreme fear. As an example, funds are still pouring into the Cathie Wood's Ark...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Happy Price Stability Day to you! Ahead of the FOMC meeting, I had been pounding the table that market expectations were unrealistically hawkish. The market was discounting strong rate hikes well beyond the Fed's stated median neutral rate of 2.4%, according to the March Summary of Economic Projections. Combine...
Since the publication of my weekend trading update (see Will the Fed rally or tank markets?), a number of additional sentiment readings have come to light that may be relevant to traders and investors. The historic almost off-the-chart levels of bearishness of the AAII weekly sentiment survey has been known for several days, but there's...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Cyclical industries have caught a bid in the last week. That's not a big surprise as they have been badly clobbered relative to the market. Transportation stocks exhibited impressive strength as they regained relative support turned resistance level. However, the relative performance of all of the other industries was either below relative...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: In case you missed it, the market recently flashed a Hindenburg Omen last week. The criteria for the Omen was succinctly explained by David Keller as: The market is in an established uptrend; A sharp expansion in both new highs and new lows, indicating indecision; and A momentum break. To...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The bears have exhibited great expectations for risk assets. Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research observed that the NDR Crowd Sentiment has been at a sub-30 reading, which is historically bullish. However, he pointed out that momentum is negative and hedged with "sentiment is extremes differ cycle to cycle, so it's best...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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