Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The ominously named Hindenburg Omen was developed by Jim Miekka to spot major stock market tops. Unfortunately, it has also had a history of crying wolf too many times with false positives. Its inconsistency prompted one commentary to call it a warning to avoid traveling by blimp. David Keller recently penned an article that analyzed...
Mid-week market update: After this week's brutal sell-offs, the stock market is oversold enough for a bounce. The VIX Index has risen above its upper Bollinger Band, which is an oversold market condition and short-term buy signal. If the market action in the past year is any guide, the potential for the S&P...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In the past week, several readers have asked whether it's too late to be buying financials, value, and other cyclical stocks. In reply, I highlighted the recent Mark Hulbert column, "Value stocks now are beating growth by 10 points, but the easy money might be behind us", namely that the value/growth reversal may not necessarily have...
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