Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend (see Where's the fear?) that the relief rally that began last Thursday was unconvincing and my base case scenario called for a retest of the lows. The retest appears to be underway. Spikes of the VIX Index above its upper Bollinger Band (BB) were signals...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Did anyone notice the upside breakouts in both gold and gold mining stocks? In the short-term, gold may have to contend with overhead resistance at the site of its 200-day moving average (dma). While I am no gold bug, the breakout could be a technical signal of an intermediate bullish phase for precious metals. ...
Mid-week market update: I have been saying for several weeks that the stock market is vulnerable to a setback but it is a bifurcated market. Value stocks have held up well, but growth stocks were getting smoked. The bears finally broke through this week and they are showing signs that they are seizing control of...
Investors received some data points today that is highly revealing about the economy. The most important was the NFIB small business survey. Small business sentiment is especially important as they have little bargaining power and they are therefore sensitive barometers of the economy. The other is the March JOLTS report of labor market conditions, which...
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