Mid-week market update: As 2022 opens, I have become increasingly cautious about the stock market. The put/call ratio (CPC) is a bit low, indicating rising complacency. Past instances of a combination of a rapidly falling CPC and low CPC have seen the market struggle to advance. While this is not immediately bearish, it is a...
I received a number of responses to the post on the 2021 report card on my investment models. While most were complimentary, one reader asked me for a more aggressive formulation of the Trend Asset Allocation Model. As a reminder, the signals of the Trend Model are out-of-sample signals, but there are no portfolio...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As the S&P 500 rises to fresh all-time highs, an important risk is lurking in the form of a more hawkish Fed. Inflation is running hot. When the Fed was officially in the transitory camp earlier this year, inflation pressures were concentrated in only a few components such as used cars. Today, price increases are...
Mid-week market update: The Santa Claus rally, which begins just after Christmas and ends on the second day of the new year, began with a bang. The S&P 500 surged 1.4% on Monday to kick off the Santa rally and managed to make another marginal closing high today. The bullish impulse has been relentless. ...
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