Take a look at this mystery chart. Is that a bullish or bearish pattern? This chart is just the start of my nine reasons to be bearish on risk assets. My analysis is mainly based on real-time pricing signals from the market and relies less on fundamental or macro analysis. This is a...
Mid-week market update: There had been some recent buzz around the positive effects of price momentum on stock prices (see The breadth thrust controversy). In particular, Ed Clissold at NDR highlighted several breadth thrust buy signals, which are based on the positive effects of price momentum. Since then, the equity rally has fizzled and the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
An unusual divergence has appeared between the VIX Index and MOVE, which measures the implied volatility of the bond market. While MOVE has spiked, VIX has fallen. The difference in the two indicators can be explained by two forces that affect markets today, namely geopolitical risk and macro risk as defined by the...
Mid-week market update: Before the war began, I wrote that investors should Buy to the sound of cannons. Historically, investors have been rewarded by buying sudden geopolitically related downdrafts. The corollary is "sell to the sound of trumpets", or news of peace. US equity indices across all market cap bands staged upside breakouts through...
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