Four weeks ago, I suggested that investors buy to the sound of cannons. Now that the cannons have sounded, is that still a good idea? Yes, but there's a catch. A detailed list of past crises from Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research reveals that stock prices usually rebound strongly after sudden shocks such...
Mid-week market update: Trying to spot a bottom here is like trying to catch a falling knife - and at a time of war. Here is what I am watching in order to navigate the turmoil. It's official. We are entering the Biden administration's "trade talks are going very well with China" phase of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The past week saw rising anxiety about a flattening yield curve rise to a crescendo. The 2s10s spread narrowed to as low as 40 bps before recovering and ending the week at 46 bps. Coincidentally, the BoA Global Fund Manager Survey showed an overwhelming majority of respondents hold believe the yield curve will flatten. ...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on Monday (see Everything but the kitchen sink) that market sentiment was overly stretched on the downside, "If you are short here, you need a catastrophe within the next 10 days, otherwise, you run the risk of a rip-your-face-off relief rally." The relief rally appeared right on cue on...
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