The Economist is becoming known as a source of the contrarian magazine cover indicator. As the world holds its collective breath for the FOMC decision next week, the recent cover of the magazine begs a number of important questions for investors. How far beyond the inflation-fighting curve is the Fed? What are the likely policy...
Mid-week market update: As the S&P 500 tests the lows for 2022, the question for investors and traders is whether support will hold. The analysis of the large-cap S&P 500, the mid-cap S&P 400, and the small-cap Russell 2000 presents a mixed picture. While large and mid-caps appear to be holding support, small-caps look wobbly....
I recently suggested a number of long/short pair trades as a way of achieving performance in an uncertain and choppy market. Inflation hedge vehicles have begun to underperform, and the subsequent performance of the pairs is revealing of the factors driving the current market environment. The four regional pairs were based on a theme...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Recession fears have arrived on Main Street. From a statistical perspective, Google searches for "recession" have spiked. From an anecdotal perspective, recession talk has emerged as the talk of the party. These conditions beg three crucial questions for investors: Will there be a recession? If so, how much of the slowdown...
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