Many technical analysts turned excited in late August when the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 dma surged from below 5% to over 90%. Historically, such breadth and momentum thrusts have signaled a fresh bull market with a track record of 100% accuracy. Since then, the percentage of stocks above their...
Mid-week market update: Before going to bed last night, I check the overnight market and saw that S&P 500 futures were down as much as -1% and thought, "Here we go again!" I woke to see that the BOE had committed to buying Gilts "on whatever scale is necessary" which sparked a risk-on stampede. The...
As we approach Q3 earnings season, the Street cut the bottom-up S&P 500 forward 12-month EPS estimates by an estimated -0.41% as recession anxiety begins to rise. The good news is the market is trading at a forward P/E of 15.8, which is below its 5- and 10-year averages. In light of the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Both the Fed and FedEx had messages of recession for the markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed would raise rates until there was clear and convincing signs that inflation was headed toward its 2% target, and its projections amounted to a recession that begins either late this year or early next year....
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