Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Recession fears have arrived on Main Street. From a statistical perspective, Google searches for "recession" have spiked. From an anecdotal perspective, recession talk has emerged as the talk of the party. These conditions beg three crucial questions for investors: Will there be a recession? If so, how much of the slowdown...
Mid-week market update: Cyclical industries have caught a bid in the last week. That's not a big surprise as they have been badly clobbered relative to the market. Transportation stocks exhibited impressive strength as they regained relative support turned resistance level. However, the relative performance of all of the other industries was either below relative...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In bull markets, valuation generally doesn`t matter very much unless it reaches a nosebleed extreme, such as the NASDAQ Bubble. In bear markets, valuation defines the downside risk in equity prices. As the Powell Fed has signaled it is dead set on a hawkish policy that does not preclude inducing a recession, valuation will...
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