Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In the wake of the Brexit shock, Fed governor Jerome Powell was the first Fed speaker to give a speech, which gives some clue to the direction to Fed policy. While what the Fed does near-term is important to traders, the longer term thinking is important to investors as the definition of the Fed's reaction...
In the past few months, I have received a lot of feedback and criticism over my use of forward 12-month EPS estimates, such as the chart below that appeared in last weekend`s post (see Brexit panic: A gift from the market gods?). I would like to clarify why this form of analysis matters and this...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: There isn't much to say about the short-term stock market outlook, other than to acknowledge that a strong reflex rally is underway. As the markets are reacting in a highly emotional way, I have little to add other than to say that the market will be volatile. If you did jump on...
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