Rather than indulge in instant analysis, I wanted to give myself a few days to reflect on Janet Yellen's speech on Monday (see full transcript). In doing so, I learned a number of things about Fed policy that I didn't know before: How much does the Fed want to raise before it considers rates to...
Mid-week market update: I like to monitor the option market from a sentiment modeling perspective because, unlike surveys which can swing all over the place, the option market is a forum where people are putting real money on the line. Even as the stock market has been slowly grinding upwards, the option market has been showing...
I present for your consideration the following mystery chart. Would you rate this as a "buy", "hold" or "sell"? Your answer will tell you something about your global macro-economic outlook and the likelihood of an equity bear market in the near future. Scroll down for the answer... ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is...
For your weekend contemplation: This post isn't about how the American and Chinese economies may converge, but about the potential development path of capital markets and regulatory regimes. CNBC recently reported that Charles Schwab and the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance conducted a survey of Chinese stock investors and found out the reason the Chinese...
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