Mid-week market update: As the US equity market consolidates its gains near resistance and all-time highs, I remain constructive on stock prices for the following five reasons: Momentum is positive Breadth is positive Bullish support from overseas markets Greed is fading, which is supportive of further gains Overbought conditions are fading (ditto) Momentum is positive I...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an...
As the oil price touched $50, there has been a growing paradigm shift, a sort of "this time is different", consensus forming about the long-term outlook for oil prices. Amy Myers Jaffe of UC Davis recently addressed the 69th CFA Institute Conference and made the following bearish points about the long run trajectory of oil...
Mid-week market update: About two weeks ago, my inner trader turned cautious on the US stock market (see my tweet and subsequent post Tactically taking profits in the commodity and reflation trade). I had cited as reasons the weakness from China, the commodity markets and, later, Europe (see Waiting for the storm to pass), which was...
Further to my last post (see Three steps and a stumble?), I would like to clear up some misconceptions about how I interpret the yield curve and its investment implications. Much of the confusion revolves around the idea of correlation vs. causation. Yield curve inversions don't cause anything. Yield curve inversions are a signal (correlation)...
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