Mid-week market update: Callum Thomas conducts a regular weekly (unscientific) Twitter poll of equity market sentiment, and the latest results show that both fundamental and technical bullishness are falling. These readings suggest that bullish momentum is waning. Indeed, daily MACD has been decelerating and turned negative this week, indicating that the bears are taking...
Brett Steenberger recently warned that traders about trading on noise, which is advice to which I wholeheartedly agree: In other words, before we can determine whether or not we have an edge (in systematic or discretionary trading), we need to establish knowledge. A theory explains how and why something occurs. Testing of historical data can...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Was the recent big tax cut not enough? CNBC reported that President Trump is proposing further tax cuts before November. He went on to pressure Congress to enact funding for his budget priorities on Twitter. These actions prompted Steve Collender (aka @thebudgetguy) to declare in a Forbes article that Trump May Be The...
Mid-week market update: There remains a fair amount of stock market skittishness among my readers and on my social media feed. Let me assure everyone that bear markets simply don`t start this way. SentimenTrader has an intermediate to long-term sentiment model called AIM "which averages the momentum of the four major sentiment surveys". This model...
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