Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
There has been a lot of hand wringing about the rising level of protectionism in the US and around the world. Let's take an alternative view to perform our analysis. Imagine an alternative universe, where Donald Trump did not secure the GOP nomination in 2016, but another Republican went on to win the election. I...
Understandably, there has been a lot of market angst over a looming trade war. Indeed, the University of Michigan Business Confidence Index shows a rising level of anxiety. How worried should you be? Measuring the Trump effect I approach the question in a number of ways. First, let's measure the Trump effect...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: It's finally happened. The SPX staged a convincing upside breakout from its cup and handle formation. Depending on how you draw the lower line, the upside target is in the 2925-2960 range. The first test will be resistance of the January highs. Upside breakouts are bullish. What more do you...
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