Do earnings matter anymore?

FactSet reported last week that bottom-up aggregated earnings estimates have been skidding rapidly for both 2020 and 2021.     Forward 12-month EPS estimates are falling even as stock prices rose.     Do earnings matter anymore?   Flying blind What is the market discounting? At this point, any estimates that analysts make are only...

Factor review: Narrow leadership and its implications

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Why this volatility isn’t unprecedented

I have heard comments from veteran technical analysts who have become bewildered by the market's action. The word "unprecedented" is often used. I beg to differ. The violence of the sell-off, and subsequent rebound is not an unprecedented event. Recall the NASDAQ top of 2000. The NASDAQ 100 fell -39.8% from its March 2000 high,...

Back to normal?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...