-week market update: Numerous signs of a new bullish impulse are appearing. The American economy has sidestepped a recession; Sentiment is not excessively bullish; and Price momentum is strong. It is a truism in investing that you should buy when blood is running in the streets. The latest update of NDR's Global Recession Model shows...
I am somewhat at a loss of why Trump is putting so much pressure on the Federal Reserve. In a recent CNBC interview, CEA chair Kevin Hassett projected that growth would rise again to 3% later this year. “Everything we see right now is teeing us up to have a year like last year -...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Even as the slowdown gloom overtook the market in the past few weeks, stock prices did not break down. Now, the storm seems to be passing as green shoots of growth are starting to appear. For equity investors, the most notable change was the reversal in forward 12-month EPS estimates, which bottomed...
I have two thoughts ahead of the March Jobs Report that investors should consider. Let's start with the tactical picture of what Friday's reports might bring. Recent jobs data has been distorted by the effects of the federal government shutdown, which can make the reported figures nonsensical. Now that the effects of the shutdown are...
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