It's time for one of my periodic reviews of the market from a factor and sector perspective. These reviews are useful inasmuch as they can reveal insights about the character of a market. Let's begin with how different regions are performing relative to the MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI). The top panel shows the S&P...
Mid-week market update: The July Employment Report has the potential to be a game changer in how the market perceives the recovery. Estimates of job gains are all over the place, and the median stands at 1.5 million. High frequency economic data has been weakening, and I am inclined to taken the "under"...
Q2 earnings season is now past the halfway mark. So far 63% of the market has reported. FactSet reported the EPS beat rate rose to 84% from 81% the previous week. The sales beat rate was fell to 69% from 71% the previous week. Both the EPS and sales beat rates are ahead of their 5-year...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
The coronavirus has imposed both a supply shock and a demand shock to the global economy. The supply shock was in the form of disruption to supply chains as factories were shuttered. The supply shock has largely been corrected. The demand shock was in the form of a loss of demand as lockdown and stay-at-home...
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