Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: It was a hawkish pause. The Fed’s decided to leave rates unchanged, but in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), it acknowledged that the economy is strong than its June projections. More importantly, the Fed Funds target for the end of this year remains unchanged, indicating that FOMC members expect another quarter-point...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Instead of just focusing on the U.S. market, I offer these two mystery charts of EM markets. One is a contrarian play, the other a momentum play. Mystery charts revealed The top chart, the contrarian play, is MSCI China relative to MSCI All-Country World Index Ex-US. The latest BoA...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: While I give seasonality only passing importance in trading, it is well known that September is seasonally negative for S&P 500 returns, which Callum Thomas recently documented. Can the stock market escape the negative seasonal pattern in 2023? More downside potential Looking under the hood, market internals are...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Sometimes it’s useful to step back and look at the big picture by ignoring the daily or weekly squiggles of the market. One useful technique of filtering out market squiggles is the point and figure (P&F) chart, which StockCharts describes this way: Point & Figure charts consist of columns of X’s and O’s that represent...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I have been calling for a relief rally, followed by a deeper correction (see Why I am both bullish and bearish). The relief rally seems to have arrived as the S&P 500 breached the upper trend line of a falling channel while exhibiting improvements in new 52-week high breadth. How...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 became extremely stretched in mid-June when its 14-week RSI exceeded the 90 level. The last two times this happened, the market eventually pulled back and the initial decline was arrested with RSI reached a neutral reading of 50. That 50 target was reached this week, which I interpret as...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I have been calling for a period of consolidation and pullback and that phase of the market seems to have arrived. As the S&P 500 weakened and the VIX Index spiked above its upper Bollinger Band, indicating a short-term oversold condition, this stock market has been remarkably resilient. The 5-day RSI traced...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It’s finally happened. The monthly MACD of the NYSE Composite turned positive at the end of July. This has been a reliable long-term buy signal in the past. The sell rule in this model is a negative 14-month divergences. In the words of Ronald Reagan when he was negotiating an arms control treaty...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that my monthly MACD model was “On the verge of a long-term buy signal”. The good news is the stock market rose enough on Monday, which was the last day of July, to eke out a buy signal condition. The bad news is the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Is the soft landing here? Wall Street strategists have been racing to reduce their recession odds in the last week. More importantly, Fed Chair Powell revealed during the post-FOMC meeting press conference that Fed staff had upgraded its forecast from a mild recession in H2 2023 to no recession. In the past few weeks,...
Mid-week market update: The market reaction to the FOMC decision was mostly a yawn. The Fed raised rates by a quarter-point, which was expected, and Powell refused to commit to further hikes while repeating his data dependency mantra. As a consequence, the S&P 500 was mostly unchanged from before the decision to after the close....
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
