The latest BoA Global Fund Manager Survey shows that respondents believe the biggest tail-risks to be inflation and its effects on the bond market. Are these worries overblown? How will these concerns affect asset prices? How transitory are inflation pressures? Recently, there has been a spate of reports about rising supply...
The fiscal and monetary authorities of the developed world are engaged in a great macroeconomic experiment. Governments are spending enormous sums to combat the recessionary effects of the pandemic and central banks are allowing monetary policy to stay loose in order to accommodate the fiscal stimulus. Eventually, inflation and inflation expectations are bound to rise....
Jerome Powell's Congressional testimony last week made the Fed's position clear. Monetary policy will remain easy for the foreseeable future. Inflation dynamics change, but not on a dime. While Fed policy will leave short-term interest rates anchored near zero, the market's inflation expectations have been rising. Last week, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly breached 1.6%...
As the FOMC conducts its two-day meeting after its big reveal of its shift in monetary policy, Fed watcher Tim Duy thinks that we won't get much more in the way of details from the Fed after this meeting: The odds favor the Fed maintains the status quo at this week’s meeting. It does not...
Was the recent big tax cut not enough? CNBC reported that President Trump is proposing further tax cuts before November. He went on to pressure Congress to enact funding for his budget priorities on Twitter. These actions prompted Steve Collender (aka @thebudgetguy) to declare in a Forbes article that Trump May Be The...
The Treasury market rallied last week when the 10-year Treasury yield tested the 3% level and pulled back. The decline in yields (and bond prices rally) was not a big surprise for a number of reasons: 10-year yields (TNX) was exhibiting a negative RSI divergence A tamer than expected Consumer Price Index Hedge...
US bond yields began to settle down last week when Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated in her Congressional testimony that the neutral rate for Fed Funds is roughly the inflation rate, which is much lower than market expectations. In addition, she allowed that the Fed is likely to re-evaluate its tightening path in light of...
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