The Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium is being held this week on August 25-27. Fed officials have fanned out across the land to deliver the message that market expectations of a dovish pivot are misplaced. The question for investors is, "Are market expectations finally rational?" The CME's Fedwatch tool shows the market expects...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Wall Street is full of adages. Technical analysts are fond of, "Price leads fundaments" as a way of dismissing macro and fundamental analysis. But traders are also warned, "Don't fight the Fed". A vast gulf is appearing between bullish technicals and macro concerns. The bulls, who are mainly technicians, point to strong price momentum,...
Mid-week market update; The S&P 500 has undergone a powerful rally off June's bottom, but it's now approaching technical resistance in the form of a 200 dma and a falling trend line. In addition, the market is overbought as measured by the 5 and 14-day RSIs, much in the manner of early November 2021. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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