Unsettling news from Crypto-Land

The NY Times recently published a note with the headline, "Crypto regulation heats up".   The wrangling over spending bills and debt-ceiling dramas may be generating the biggest headlines in Washington, but the race to regulate the fast-growing cryptocurrency industry is also ramping up. Here’s a tour of some of the key developments this week:...

The risks to Big Tech

Mid-week market update: As the S&P 500 continues its test of support while exhibiting a positive RSI divergence, one important consideration is what happens to large-cap technology stocks. Large-cap tech and FANG+ account for about 45% of S&P 500 weight, and further weakness could prove to be a drag for the overall market, no matter...

Q3 earnings season preview

The recent pullback in the S&P 500 has deflated the forward P/E to 20.1 as of close last Thursday, which is in the bottom of the post-COVID Crash recovery range. The P/E derating is not surprising as bond yields have risen to put downward pressure on P/E ratios.     What's next? The upcoming Q3...

A Q4 meltup ahead?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...