Is a recession just around the corner?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

Bottom spotting

Mid-week market update: Did you think that a market bottom was going to be this easy? I got worried on Monday when I received several congratulatory messages and high-fives for my weekend tactical bullish call (see Macro weakness: Just a flesh wound?). That rebound seemed a bit too easy. especially when I saw the latest...

Rate hike vs. rate hike cycle

Recently, there has been a parade of regional Fed presidents calling for a serious consideration of a rate hike: Boston Fed's Rosengren, who appears to have becoming more hawkish after being a dove Richmond Fed`s Lacker San Francisco Fed`s Williams Kansas City Fed's George Atlanta Fed's Lockhart The hawkishness of regional presidents is no surprise....

Macro weakness: Just a flesh wound?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...