It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time.
I have stated that while I don’t believe that the stock market has made its final cyclical top, we are in the late stages of a bull market (see Risks are rising, but THE TOP is still ahead and Nearing the terminal phase of this equity bull). Nevertheless, psychology is getting a little frothy, which represent the pre-condition for a major top.
As a result, this is another post in an occasional series of lists of “things you don’t see at market bottoms”. This week, I focus on more signs of retail giddiness.
- The TD-Ameritrade Investor Movement Index hits an all-time high
- E-Trade parties like it`s 1999
- If the market is chasing yield, corporations can get away with murder
TD-Ameritrade IMX at ATH
The TD-Ameritrade Investor Movement Index measures the sentiment of the firm’s customers. The latest update shows IMX at an all-time high since its inception in 2011.
E-Trade parties like it`s 1999
I present this E-Trade ad without further comment, other than it is reminiscent of a certain other era of investing.
Cov-lite goes wild
Tracy Alloway highlighted this chart of plunging covenant quality of new US corporate bonds. If the market is chasing yield, issuers can virtually get away with murder…
1 thought on “Things you don’t see at market bottoms, Retailphoria edition”
Thanks for adding sentiment indicators to the mix of “recession watch indicators”. As I write this, I see CPI including core CPI, remains weak, inflation is no where to be found and US 10 year treasuries are starting to rally. It appears, Janet Yellen’s testimony from the last two days was prescient. Unwinding of QE may be difficult to put through, in face of low inflation. Your read, of being bullish on assets, like stocks, is spot on.
Comments are closed.