Sometimes misunderstandings can lead to enormous adverse consequences. In 1941, Japan believed that war was inevitable with the United States. The Americans had slapped a trade embargo on Japan, and made it clear that Japanese occupation of China was unacceptable. The Japanese High Command saw that America was a big industrialized country with resources that...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
As we approach the one-year anniversary of Donald Trump's first year in office, I am seeing numerous commentaries assessing his first year in office (see FiveThirtyEight, The Economist and BBC) . About a year ago, I laid out my criteria for his success (see Forget politics! Here are the 5 key macro indicators of Trump's political fortunes) using...
Mid-week market update: How far can this momentum rally run? Already, the momentum frenzy is exceeding the pace set during the height of the Tech Bubble. The WSJ recently published an article about the dominance of price momentum: "The Momentum Game Has Returned to the Stock Market". Forget fundamentals: Momentum is back in...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
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