An EM warning

avFor several months, the BAML Fund Manager Survey shows that global institutions have been piling into emerging market equities.   The purchase of EM equities has been a smart move, as they have been leading the market upwards. However, their time in a leadership role may be coming to an end owing to a series...

The boom of 2021

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Still bullish, but time to reduce risk

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Defying gravity

Mid-week market update: For the last few weeks, I have been writing about a possible market stall ahead (see Peering into 2020 and beyond). So far, the pullback has yet to materialize, though risk levels continue to rise as the SPX approaches its resistance zone at 2800-2810.     Here are some reasons why the...