A pause at 61.8%

Mid-week market update: After much indecision, the SPX paused at its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.     The 50 day moving average (dma) which could have acted as support did not hold. I had also previously identified a possible Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal setup. Unless the market really surges in the next two days,...

Powell Fed: Market wildcard

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Did risk-parity funds crash the bond market?

When the markets crash unexpectedly, everyone is on the lookup for culprits. One of the leading theories behind the latest downdraft in stock prices is the rise in bond yields, which spooked the stock market. Derivative analysts have pointed the finger at Risk-Parity funds as the leading actors in the bond market rout. They contend...

Five reasons not to worry (plus 2 concerns)

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...