Mid-week market update: There remains a fair amount of stock market skittishness among my readers and on my social media feed. Let me assure everyone that bear markets simply don`t start this way. SentimenTrader has an intermediate to long-term sentiment model called AIM "which averages the momentum of the four major sentiment surveys". This model...
Back in March, I wrote about the new Fragile Five, which were five highly leveraged developed market economies that were undergoing property booms. The five countries are Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden. As a reminder of how insane property prices are in Vancouver, which is one of the epicenters of the real estate boom,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Charles Dow once characterized the stock market`s price movement as being composed of tides, waves, and ripples. We can see a mini version of this thesis by the market's action in the past week. The major indices had staged an upside breakout through a downtrend and sentiment had turned bullish. This...
The Treasury market rallied last week when the 10-year Treasury yield tested the 3% level and pulled back. The decline in yields (and bond prices rally) was not a big surprise for a number of reasons: 10-year yields (TNX) was exhibiting a negative RSI divergence A tamer than expected Consumer Price Index Hedge...
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