Mid-week market update: Don't get me wrong, I am still bullish. The Wilshire 5000 flashed an important MACD buy signal on the monthly chart at the end of October. While MACD sell signals have been hit-and-miss, buy signals have historically resolved themselves in strong gains with minimal drawdowns. The MSCI World xUS Index...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Now that the Fed has cut rates a third time, and the upside breakout in the SPX and NDX are holding, what's next? Are the series of precautionary cuts over? Dissecting the rate cut Now that Brexit risks have subsided, and trade tensions are receding as the US and...
I have written before how a strong USD can be a negative for global financial stability. There are many EM borrowers who have borrowed in the offshore USD market, and a rising USD puts a strain on their finances. In addition, FactSet reported that companies with foreign domestic exposure have exhibited worse sales growth than...
The markets began to take on a risk-on tone on Friday when the news that American and Chinese negotiators had "made headway on specific issues and the two sides are close to finalizing some sections of the agreement". Bloomberg went on to report today that the text of the "phase one" agreement is basically done,...
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