Mid-week market update: I am publishing the mid-week market update early ahead of the FOMC meeting Wednesday, which can create a high degree of volatility. It has been over a month since the December 24 market bottom, and stock prices have rallied strongly since that bottom. Indeed, price momentum has continued to lift prices even...
I had a number of bullish comments on China in the wake of my last post (see How worried should you be about China?). Jeroen Blokland pointed out that the market is discounting a lot of weakness in the Chinese economy. On the other hand, Caterpillar shares cratered today on jitters of a...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal occurred a little two weeks ago. For those who jump onto the bullish bandwagon, it has been an exhilarating ride. This week, the inevitable pullback has arrived. The SPX breached a key uptrend on the hourly chart yesterday (Tuesday), and it could not hold the morning...
The latest BAML Fund Manager Survey shows that institutional managers have been piling into emerging market equities while avoiding the other major developed market regions. Indeed, there is good reasoning behind the bullish stampede. Callum Thomas showed a series of charts supportive of the EM equity bull case. For one, developed market M-PMIs...
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