I suppose I should be used to it by now. Last week's initial jobless claims spiked to 6.6 million, and the March headline Non-Farm Payroll printed at a dismal -701K. The unemployment rate would have been even worse had the participation rate not fallen and depressed the size of the labor force. My desk has...
Mid-week market update: The bear market rally appears to have stalled at the first Fibonacci resistance level of 2650. The bulls also failed to stage an upside breakout through the falling trend line. Instead, it broke down through the (dotted) rising trend line, indicating the bears had taken control of the tape. Deteriorating...
The following note is addressed to short-term traders with time horizons of a week or less. I would like to highlight some three bullish, and one cautionary data points. First, the latest update of the Citi Panic/Euphoria Model is solidly in panic territory. This is contrarian bullish, but recognize that the bullish call is based...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Last week's stock market rally appears to be based on the hopes of a V-shaped economic recovery, powered by the combination of all-in monetary stimulus, and fiscal stimulus, as evidenced by a $2 trillion bill passed in Congress. Street consensus is now a V-shaped rebound, with a trough in Q2. This Goldman Sachs forecast is...
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