Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
I have heard comments from veteran technical analysts who have become bewildered by the market's action. The word "unprecedented" is often used. I beg to differ. The violence of the sell-off, and subsequent rebound is not an unprecedented event. Recall the NASDAQ top of 2000. The NASDAQ 100 fell -39.8% from its March 2000 high,...
Mid-week market update: How should investors interpret the crash in oil prices and its effect on the stock market? The most simplistic way of looking at it is to observe that stock and oil prices have diverged. Either oil has to rally hard, or stocks have to fall down - a lot. That's a...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
In the past few weeks, a number of investors and strategists have turned bullish. I would like to address the reasoning for the bull case for equities, and the risks to the reasoning. History shows that recessions are bull market killers, and bear markets do not resolve themselves this quickly without a prolonged period of...
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