Mid-week market update: The stock market is over-extended. I warned on the weekend about the market's nosebleed valuation (see Priced for perfection). The market's forward P/E ratio of 18.4 matched the levels last seen at the 2017/18 market melt-up. But there are some crucial differences between the last melt-up episode and the one...
I received some thoughtful feedback to my recent post (see The OK Boomer decade). In particular, one reader referred me to an article by Greg Ip of the WSJ regarding the demographic headwinds affecting the American labor force. The U.S. will run out of people to join the workforce. Indeed, this bright cyclical picture for...
I have been in the habit of writing a weekend publication consisting of a relatively long research piece combined with a tactical trading commentary, which has at times been very long. As an experiment, I am splitting the two up. Please let me know if you prefer the format of two shorter posts, or a...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The financier Nathan Rothschild was said to have coined the phrase, “Buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets”. After the New York market closed last night, the news flashed across the wire that Iran had launched missile strikes at Iraqi bases housing American and Coalition military personnel....
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