Mid-week market update: I have some good news and bad news. The good news is the performance of the NASDAQ 100, the market leadership, has stabilized. The relative performance of the NASDAQ 100 against the S&P 500 successfully tested a rising relative trend line, and the relative uptrend is still intact. The bad...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
There is growing evidence that the stock market is undergoing a rotation from large cap technology to cyclical and reflation stocks. Exhibit A is the market action of the tech heavy NASDAQ 100, which violated a key rising channel and also violated its 50 day moving average (dma). By contrast, the broader S&P 500 is...
Mid-week market update: Is time to sound the all-clear? The market staged a relief rally after last week's weakness. Is the stock market ready to resume its uptrend? A rally to new highs from these levels is unlikely. Last week's pullback inflicted significant technical damage that, at a minimum, a period of sideways consolidation and...
As the FOMC conducts its two-day meeting after its big reveal of its shift in monetary policy, Fed watcher Tim Duy thinks that we won't get much more in the way of details from the Fed after this meeting: The odds favor the Fed maintains the status quo at this week’s meeting. It does not...
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