The world is changing, but it changed even before Trump's COVID-19 news. In the past few weeks, a couple of key macro trends have reversed themselves. The US Dollar, which large speculators had accumulated a crowded short position, stopped falling and began to turn up. In addition, inflation expectations, as measured by the...
Mid-week market update: The Presidential Debate last night was painful to watch. After the debate, different broadcasters conducted instant polls of who won the debate. The CNN poll showed that 60% believed that Biden had won, and 29% thought that Trump had won. The Fox poll showed that 60% thought Trump had won, and 39%...
There was some excitement last week when SentimenTrader wrote about the massive aggregate short by large speculators and CTA trend followers in equity futures. Conventional contrarian analysis would be bearish, but this is a lesson for traders and investors to look beneath the surface before jumping to conclusions. Mitigating conditions Here are...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
RealMoney columnist Helene Meisler asked rhetorically in an article where her readers thought we are in the equity sentiment cycle. She concluded that the market is in the "subtle warning" phase, though she would allow that the "overt warning" phase was also possible. I agree. This retreat is acting like the start of a...
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