Now that 2020 has come to an end, it's time to deliver the Humble Student of the Markets report card. While some providers only highlight the good calls in their marketing material, readers will find both the good and bad news here. No investor has perfect foresight, and these report cards serve to dissect the...
Mid-week market update: Not much has changed since my last post, so I just have a brief update during a thin and holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 remains in a shallow upward channel while flashing a series of “good overbought” conditions during a seasonally positive period for equities. The index staged an upside breakout at...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
There has been some recent hand wringing over Warren Buffett's so-called favorite indicator, the market cap to GDP ratio. This ratio has rocketed to new all-time highs, indicating nosebleed valuation conditions for the stock market. Worries about this ratio are overblown. Here's why. Dissecting market cap to GDP Let's begin by...
Mid-week market update: In my last post (see Trading the pre-Christmas panic), I pointed out that the VIX Index had spiked above its upper Bollinger Band, which is an indication of an oversold market. In the past year, stock prices have usually stabilized and rallied after such signals (blue vertical line). The only major exception...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
