Mid-week market update: After two consecutive days where the market was down over 3%, I am seeing numerous statistical studies that suggest either an imminent oversold bounce, or a sentiment washout. One example is this analysis from Nomura, as published by Marketwatch. Has the sell-off bottomed? The short-term outlook There are two...
I should thank my lucky starts. i turned bearish last Wednesday (see Why this time is (sort of) different) and tactically shorted the market just as equities topped out, followed by today's -3% downdraft. As today proceeded, I fielded several inquiries from readers with versions of the same question, "Nice call last week. Is it...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
The covid-19 coronavirus outbreak is a human tragedy, just like Ebola, MERS, and SARS. For investors, it has an economic impact. Even before the outbreak, world merchandise trade volume had been falling. New data is likely to show that the outbreak disrupted global supply chains sufficiently to further depress global trade. The market consensus initially...
Mid-week market update: Some elements of the market have recently taken on a definitive risk-off tone, such as yesterday’s upside breakout in gold that was achieved in spite of a similar upside breakout in the USD Index. That has to be equity bearish, right? Well…this time is (sort of) different. Macro headwinds...
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