Q1 earnings season is well underway. 25% of the S&P 500 has reported, and a number of large-cap bellwether technology companies will report this week. So far, the EPS and sales beat rates are above their historical averages, and forward 12-month EPS estimates continue to surge. However, risks are rising as the sunny...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Recently, a growing narrative in the market is arguing for a pause in the reflation trade for the following reasons: Both the cyclically sensitive copper/gold and base metal/gold ratios have moved sideways. The 10-year Treasury yield peaked out in March and it is now falling, which is an indication of the bond market's belief...
Mid-week market update: How should investors and traders react to the recent stock market weakness? The bears will argue that the S&P 500 spiked past a trend line resistance and fell back, which is an indication of bullish exhaustion. Moreover, the 5-day RSI recycled from an overbought condition to neutral, which is a tactical sell...
Q1 earnings season began with the reports from a number of major banks last week, and it is about to go into full swing this week. Expectations are high, but how much of the good news has been discounted by the market? Rising estimates = Fundamental momentum While it's still very early...
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