Mid-week market update: (I am publishing my mid-week market update a day early owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday shortened week) Should the bulls be worried? The Greed and Fear Index has surged to 88, which represents a warning of excessive bullishness. As well, Willie Delwiche pointed out that his survey of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
I hope that I haven't offended the market gods. Just after my bullish call for a cyclical recovery (see Everything you need to know about the Great Rotation but were afraid to ask), a number of contrary data points have appeared to cast doubt on the reflation thesis. The markets were jolted by the...
Mid-week market update: In case you missed it, the Dow Theory flashed a definitive buy signal. Both the Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages made all-time highs on Monday. This is the granddaddy of all technical analysis systems, and investors should sit up and pay attention. Moreover, the Dow may be tracing out a series...
I recently made a presentation at a virtual conference, and an audience member asked me to name some of my favorite value sectors. I had a few answers, but let me start with what I would avoid, namely financial stocks. Financial stocks are statistically cheap and comprise a significant weight in most value...
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